Bill, George, Jeb


Does Bill Frist's behavior surrounding the filibuster issue give us any information about the 2008 race for the GOP presidential nomination?

In particular, does it tell us anything about whether Jeb Bush is truly out of the running?

OK, here's the situation as I see it: Frist is whipping the religious right into a froth over the issue of filibusters, wingnuttily insisting that Democratic opposition to Bush nominees is an example of the way in which the filibuster is used to persecute people of faith.

The CW on this among the chattering classes (on our side, anyway, exemplified in this story by Kos) is that Frist wants to run for President in 2008, and that he is rallying the dominionist right into his camp, hoping that their organization and energy will propel him to an early lead in the primary race.

That makes sense. It means that win or lose (it increasingly looks like the latter), Frist's efforts against the filibuster amount to free publicity with a base he's attempting to cultivate. Plenty of opportunities to look like a tragic champion for the cause; plenty of chances to blow the dog-whistle.

Here's what I can't figure out: If Jeb Bush were contemplating a run in 2008, wouldn't he want the wingnut faithful on his side? (Yes.) Given this, wouldn't one expect George W. to be maneuvering against Frist in some observable way? He could accomplish this by somehow putting his brother front and center on the issue — sure, it's not appropriate for a Governor to weigh in on Senate rules, but this isn't a dynasty that has ever been uncomfortable about disrupting either horizontal or vertical separation of powers if it suits their purposes. Or he could try to reign in Frist: W essentially made him Senate Majority Leader by cuttting Trent Lott loose, and maybe W could still break him.

The weakest possible way for W to avoid supporting Frist in his ambitions would be to remain silent on this subject, which he more or less has been, personally — but Cheney has announced that he'd break a tie on the issue by voting against the filibuster in the Senate, so to the extent that we can consider the administration a unified entity on this or any subject, W hasn't been completely silent.

Given all of that, can we therefore conclude that Jeb has made a more or less binding decision not to run? Allowing a rival to carve into a base that his brother has painstakingly cultivated over six years isn't exactly keeping his options open.

On the other hand: Does the very nature of the issue prevent W from opposing Frist at all? Since Frist is couching his actions in terms of "the President's nominees," and giving every indication of championing the President's interests, does that make it impossible (i.e., politically difficult in the sense of overly complicated) for W to do anything more than watch from the sidelines?

This is my first foray into psychologizing the beast, so I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Posted: Tue - April 26, 2005 at 12:20 PM   | Category:     |   |   | |


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