Risk, aversion to risk, and the 2006 election


Schwarzenegger is a rare type of opponent: Unencumbered by (some of) the more noxious attributes of his own party, independently famous, independently wealthy, and so popular that he's scared off at least one of his potential rivals

But as this nice piece of analysis points out, his most daunting feature may be his willingness to take risks that our guys — so far, career politicians all — might not be willing to take:
Arnold Schwarzenegger, however, is not your average politician. With two highly successful careers behind him, a personal fortune and global fame, Schwarzenegger is in a unique position to put his political career on the line. He wants to win, of course; indeed, he possesses a powerful drive, even compulsion, to dominate any venue in which he involves himself. But, if anything, that makes him willing to take risks that ordinary politicians would avoid.[...]

Asked by a reporter whether he was risking voter fatigue in taking to the campaign trail for the fourth time in less than 18 months, Schwarzenegger shrugged and said risk is inherent "when you try to do great things" and the willingness to take risks "separates the boys from the men."


Macho verbiage aside, it's true that voters like to see politicians who are perceived as active rather than reactive. They're more likely to go for "effective," even when the effect of the efficacy runs counter to their own interests. And everyone who's been mesmerized by Celebrity Poker knows, we are suckers for the first guy to go all in.

What is the upshot of this for the Democrats? Is there a way for the contenders to call or raise? Feisty rhetoric isn't the same as genuine daring and the electorate knows this — so calling Schwarzenegger a stooge of Bush, while an important part of the message, doesn't come close to incurring the kind of real political risk that will catch people's attention and convince Californians of the candidate's leadership potential.

We have the advantage that we're right and they're wrong, but we need to capture the imagination of the voters in order to win. What can the Democratic challengers in the governor's race do to neutralize the advantage of Schwarzenegger, who is shaping himself up to look like the candidate with whom we have nothing to lose (because he doesn't) and everything to gain?

We need to start visualizing how we're going to beat this guy. We need to see it, and then we need to do it. Let's get started.

Posted: Fri - March 4, 2005 at 09:09 AM   | Category:     |   |   | |


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