Red California?


Among the few things that I accept on faith is that California is a blue state. We might elect the occasional Republican in a bizarre counterdemocratic recall election, but our Senate seats and electoral votes are sacrosanct.

Right?

Not according to GOP chair Ken Mehlman, who's been making monthly visits to the Golden State in hopes of taking advantage of long-term demographic shifts already underway.

I found these statistics more than a little bit chilling:

Republicans See Glimmer of Hope in California
(AP) California is home to nearly 37 million people one of every eight Americans and is projected to add as many as 11 million more in the next two decades, roughly the equivalent of the state of Ohio. But while population growth is slowing in left-leaning coastal areas like Los Angeles and San Francisco, it is accelerating in more conservative regions such as the Central Valley and the Inland Empire area east of Los Angeles.

The state's large Hispanic population, long staunchly Democratic, has become somewhat less so in recent years. Bush won 32 percent of California's Hispanic vote in 2004, up from 28 percent in 2000. Schwarzenegger won about a third of Hispanic voters in the 2003 recall election even though Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, a Hispanic, was also on the ballot.


Upon thinking about the first point, I wondered whether it's anything to be afraid of: Granted that regions that are currently more conservative are growing...does that mean that the new population will be as conservative as the old one? Isn't it possible that demographic change will cause the current Republican strongholds to become more hotly contested? Furthermore: As population grows, urban centers urbanize, and there are features of urban living (the sharing of transportation and other resources; the opportunity to witness and celebrate diversity; the daily confrontation with those of differing socioeconomic circumstances) that I think inevitably push voters to the left.

The second point is a greater cause for concern...Republicans are trending positively among Hispanic voters around the country, from Florida to Texas to San Diego. White Catholics are starting to be swayed by "values voter" rhetoric, away from the Democrats; their Hispanic coreligionists can't be far behind. Until recently I felt like there was no end in sight, and I'm not sure that there is. I don't think that the scapegoating of undocumented Hispanic immigrants will go over very well with Hispanic citizens, in particular if conservatives continue to lump legal US citizens (of Hispanic descent) together with illegal immigrants in order to pad their statistics.

I think the above is cause for concern. I'm not sure how much. But I think we start needing to get our heads around the idea that in ten years we won't be able to take California for granted anymore.

Posted: Thu - June 9, 2005 at 08:31 AM   | Category:     |   |   | |


©
eXTReMe Tracker