Will there be a 2005 special election?

There has been much petitioning and signature gathering, many dollars paid to political consultants...but still no final decision.

The fall 2005 initiative-only "special election," which first made its appearance in Governor Schwarzenegger's "state of the state" address, is still virtual, and may remain up in the air until mid-June.

It's clear that the Governor is still explicitly treating the special election as the proverbial threat that is stronger than its own execution. The idea, bless him, was always that the possibility of a special election would force Democrats to the bargaining table, q.v.:

Signatures in, but will vote happen?

(Sacramento Bee) ... Schwarzenegger's initiative petitions have all been submitted to county registrars, his backers said, and the two sides have until the middle of June to reach some kind of legislative compromise.
If they don't, Schwarzenegger has vowed to call a special election for November with his own proposals on the ballot. ...
"The governor was hopeful negotiations would have gone further," said Margita Thompson, his press secretary. "Who knows what will happen when we get closer to the date when a special election will need to be called?"

However, in the same article, we find that the Democrats called the bluff: Instead of knuckling, they came up with ballot initiatives of their own. From the same Bee article:

The Democrat-and organized labor-backed Alliance for a Better California had threatened a variety of initiatives as a strategy to combat Schwarzenegger at the polls. But when the final petitions were turned in, the group - like the Republican governor - had significantly peeled back its agenda.
The alliance submitted signatures for an initiative its backers say could provide cheaper prescription medicine to as many as 10 million uninsured, elderly and low-income Californians. Its second proposal would "reregulate" the state's electricity markets. The initiatives mirror legislation Democrats passed last year only to be vetoed by Schwarzenegger.
"This was a special election that we've never asked for," Dave Low, an alliance spokesman, said at a press conference outside the Capitol. "We still think it's a waste of taxpayer money. ...
"We've always said if the governor insists on calling a special election, we will use this opportunity to do something real and tangible for the people of California, and that's what our two initiatives today do."

Unfortunately, the Democrats aren't alone. Other groups have been hard at work pushing petitions in the face of grocery shoppers around the state, and a total of eight ballot initiatives are either already qualified or likely to qualify for the fall election, if it happens. I abstracted them from an LA Times article. Below, they're listed in no particular order, in conjunction with the identity of their principal sponsors.

1. (Schwarzenegger) The "Live Within Our Means Act" (our earlier coverage: credibility problems of, here; as gubernatorial power-grab, here).

2. (Schwarzenegger) Redistricting (see here, here, and here).

3. (Schwarzenegger) Teacher merit pay (I've ignored this one because I'm a shit)

4. (Corporate front group) Prevent union dues for being used for political purposes (see this article in the LA Daily News)

5. (Democrats) Lower prescription drug prices for poor and middle-income Californians.

6 (Big pharma) Lower prescription drug prices for some elderly Californians (designed to be mutually exclusive with #5)

7. (Democrats) Re-regulate the energy market.

8. (Anti-choice religious zealots) Waiting period and parental notification for minors seeking abortions.

(9. Recall the Governor — if I'd had this idea in January, I would have collected the signatures myself; if I'd had this idea and a million dollars, I would have hired you)

It's a mixed bag, to say the least, and there's something to get under everyone's skin.

One might expect a candidate-free election to have a pathologically low turnout (does anyone know if there's anything like a quorum or other minimum turnout requirement for passage of a ballot measure?), but with an abortion issue on the ballot it's likely that both the religious right and the enlightened left will come out in force, mobilized along axes that have little or nothing to do with the other ballot items other than the perceived affiliation of the sponsors. Throw in the union angle, Californian memories of the Enron scandal and rolling blackouts, and we've got ourselves a ball game.

And that ball game belongs to anyone at this point.

Whether it happens at all is another sport altogether.

More elsewhere:
Reform plans make ballot (Whittier Daily News)

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Will there be a 2005 special election?

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