Arnold still below 50%; disapproval inches up


While this article makes it sound like it's news that Arnold's approval rating dipping below 50%, we know from previous data that it's been true for a month.

Less than a majority of Californians approve of how the Governor is doing his job, and his "disapproves" may now be slightly outstripping the "approves".

Schwarzenegger Poll
(AP) For the first time since taking office, Schwarzenegger is on the down side of a major statewide poll: 47 percent of likely voters surveyed by the Public Policy Institute disapprove of his job performance, while 45 percent approve, and 8 percent are undecided. In January, the poll found 60 percent approval for the governor and 33 percent disapproval. ...

The slide shown in the new poll is similar to that measured in the Field Poll over recent months: In September, the Field Poll measured approval for the governor at 65 percent with disapproval at 22 percent. In February, the survey found 54 percent of voters favor his job performance with 35 percent disapproving and 11 percent had no opinion.


Cautionary note: These numbers tell a slightly different story if we take the earlier poll numbers seriously. This poll says approve/disapprove is 45/47, whereas early April polls had the approval numbers at 42% and 43%. The difference in the numbers is within the polls' margins of error, but it does seem clear that the numbers aren't moving downward substantially.

In other words: This might be the hard floor for Arnold's numbers. He has a lot of chances in the next month to make things better: a budget announcement in mid-May, and a decision to make about the special election.

The numbers are cause for optimism, sure -- but cautious, tempered optimism, realizing that if 1 in 20 people changed their minds, he'd stop looking so vulnerable.

More:
Falling fortunes mean 'Terminator' might not be back (Ventura County Star)
Bring Back the Old Arnold (LA Times)
Arnold's in the tank (LA Daily News)

And in the blogosphere:
A Brutal Morning of Polling Coverage for Governor Schwarzenegger (Dropping the Gloves)

Posted: Thu - April 28, 2005 at 08:20 AM   | Category:     |   |   | |



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