Mobilizing the base...but on which side?


Deflating the conventional wisdom that the special election, if it happens, will be primarily a showdown between labor and the Governor...

Abortion notification likely bound for California ballot
(Knoxville News Sentinel) Most of the attention has been drawn to the heat of a possible special election fight between Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and organized labor this year, but another highly charged measure might be first to qualify for the ballot.

A constitutional amendment requiring abortion providers to notify the parent or guardian of unemancipated minors 48 hours before performing an abortion is well on its way to qualifying, supporters say.[...]

"Putting that on the ballot adds a very different dynamic for the governor to consider in calling a special election," said Gale Kaufman, a Democratic consultant advising a coalition of Democratic and labor leaders opposing Schwarzenegger's initiative proposals on redistricting, teacher pay, public pensions and spending controls.[...]

But another Democratic consultant, Darry Sragow, said the question of what would be on a special election ballot - or whether they'll even be a special election at all - is still so unclear, it's impossible to predict how the abortion measure would affect turnout or other ballot measure battles.


Boy howdy. What are we to predict?

Clearly the supporters of the initiative think they can win because they have broad support: Even some pro-choice parents might be tempted to vote for a law that would allow them to be informed before their child had an abortion.

Per the last two paragraphs of the excerpt above, my question is: How should we expect this ballot measure's presence on the fall ballot to influence turnout, and the results of the rest of the election?

I "know" (in the sense of "intuit based on anecdotal evidence that I'm ashamed to admit that I'm using to support an argument") that — at least in the Bay Area — a great many Democrats are fully dedicated to absolute preservation of a woman's right to choose and the privacy rights that surround it. Around here, anyway, this ballot initiative would boost turnout among Californians on the diehard left, and to the extent that these individuals voted straight ticket (i.e., "no" on any of Arnold's initiatives), the abortion measure would hurt the Governor's chances to pass his pet initiatives.

This assumes that these same individuals would be less likely to vote in the special election if the abortion measure weren't on the ballot, which I think is possible if not likely. (With only unsexy issues like redistricting and pension reform on the ballot, and the election itself seen as a wholly owned subsidiary of the executive branch, I live in fear of a liberal "boycott" of the special election, which like all election boycotts would guarantee that the results will go badly for the boycotters.)

Add this into the mix: Is it possible, just possible, that core support for abortion rights could be bolstered by a general pushback against the "culture of life," inspired by the mendacious and bizarre grandstanding of Congressional Republicans on the Schiavo case?

On the other hand, there's a whole lot of California out there that I never visit, and for all I know there's a huge die-hard pro-life constituency out there just waiting to use a fairly moderate-sounding issue like this one to strike a blow for their side. And if they turn out in droves, and vote the way the GOP tells them to...

Yeah. I know you get it.

I'll close on a bit of a left turn from the main gist of this posting: If you've never heard of Medical Students For Choice, check them out. If there's a major electoral battle over abortion in California, you'll be hearing more from them.

Posted: Mon - March 28, 2005 at 07:03 AM   | Category:     |   |   | |


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