Schwarzenegger: Manufacturing a culture war?


Over the past two weeks, the Governor has attacked illegal immigrants, asserting that they're damaging to the California economy. He's suggested that the border be more heavily patrolled, and subsequently given his endorsement to the Minutemen, a vigilante militia that hunts illegal immigrants along la frontera.

Picking on immigrants is likely to be more popular than beating up on teachers and nurses.

Is this new direction an effort by Schwarzenegger to cultivate support on the right, and generate a non-issue issue to help him in the polls?

Don't Take the (Race) Bait
(ArnoldWatch.org) Arnold's most recent nativist remark -- praising the "Minuteman" vigilante groups who are stalking the US-Mexico border -- has certainly caused a furor among opinion leaders. But it has also shifted the debate. Arnold was swiftly losing ground when he was forced to talk about his steroidal fundraising and his attacks on working people as "special interests." But he won't have to talk about that anymore if people take the bait. Pete Wilson, who supplied most of Arnold's advisors, used the same political tactic to secure a second term. Bush and Rove won the White House again by manufacturing their own culture wars. Those who want this Governor to answer for betraying campaign promises should not let the only questions become those about the border.

If Schwarzenegger is really hoping to score points by busting on immigrants, I don't think the numbers are going to work out -- it can't possibly help him among Latinos, the vast majority of whom are California natives and legal immigrants, but who as a group have sympathy for the motivation and plight of those who do enter the country illegally.

Latinos strongly supported Schwarzenegger in the recall, and until recently had been strongly supportive of his governorship. None of the recent polls have the statistical power to show whether Latino support is actually dropping as a result of the Governor's recent rhetoric, but I'd be very, very surprised if it held steady or improved.

Outside this single demographic, my intuition tells me that immigrant-baiting will lose Arnold more support in the middle than it gains him on the right -- since most rightists already support the Republican candidate, there's a limit to the gains he can make there; in the center it seems likely to be a wash, and among Democrats it will probably eliminate whatever cross-over support he once had in our party.

I wish I could add that I don't think Californians are stupid and mean-spirited to buy this sort of race-baiting nonsense, but then again, we did pass Props 187 and 209, so it seems clear that we are a little stupid and mean-spirited.

And maybe, like his counterparts in the national GOP, that's what the Governor is counting on.

Posted: Tue - May 3, 2005 at 07:48 AM   | Category:     |   |   | |


©
eXTReMe Tracker